The Netherlands recently hosted the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, which saw the heads of state of the member nations, as well as special guests, meet to reflect on the past year and discuss common policy and actions going forward. They were able to notably agree on working to increase national defense spending to 5% of GDP annually, continuing to back Ukraine in its fight against Russia, and pledged support for Article 5. Although the general atmosphere appeared friendly and collaborative, some points did end up introducing a level of disagreement among the nations.
For context, NATO holds summits of its North Atlantic Council (NAC) - the chief political decision-making body of the organization, consisting of the heads of state and government of its members - on a near-annual basis. The purpose of these meetings is to broadly address issues “of overarching political or strategic importance,” with the alliance’s consensus published in a joint statement at the end. Thus, figures from nations not formally within the alliance, but involved with its strategic initiatives, are often also invited. The 2025 summit saw important guests such as President Donald Trump, President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and even Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The summit was chaired by NATO Secretary-General and former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, meaning it was his first in his current role.
One of the most crucial decisions made during the summit was an agreement for all members to increase their defense spending from the current target of 2% of GDP to 5% of GDP by 2035. This must be accompanied by annual plans “showing a credible, incremental path to reach that goal.” The joint declaration published on the matter further elaborated that while only 3.5% needed to go into “pure” defense, with the rest going towards security infrastructure and capabilities, such as cyber warfare. The plan may be difficult to universally implement, even with around a decade, as 8 out of the 32 NATO members don’t meet the current spending target of 2% of GDP.
The only exception to the 5% target was Spain, after Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez reportedly negotiated the new target. Sanchez explained that Spain “cannot commit...to a specific spending target in terms of GDP.” Instead, Spain’s commitment to NATO will remain intact with Spain’s separate spending target of 2.1% of GDP. This is already a significant increase, as Spain ranks at the bottom of NATO members for spending, with a current rate of just 1.28% of its GDP. In response, President Trump voiced his strong opposition to the decision, commenting that, ““I think Spain’s terrible what they’ve done.” He added that Spain was looking for a “free ride,” and further threatened to make Spain pay through tariffs and other trade restrictions. The threat aligns with Trump’s historical concerns regarding other NATO members being unable to meet their spending commitments.
More important discourse came from evaluation of the alliance’s position on Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and despite efforts of a ceasefire, has continued the war in full force. Moreover, Ukraine and Russia have been part of high-level engagements, such as a Ukrainian drone attack that destroyed 34% of Russia's long-range bomber fleet, or the Russian retaliatory drone attacks on Ukrainian cities which caused numerous fatalities. Ultimately, the final position of the alliance referred to the “long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security.”
This declaration also means the alliance will broadly continue “enduring” support Ukraine against Russia, including through providing arms. For instance, the UK will be providing Ukraine with hundreds of air missiles funded by sanctioned Russian assets. However, Zelenskyy’s presence at this year’s summit was notably more muted than last year’s in Washington, D.C. After an initial press conference, Zelenskyy was less prominent for the rest of the conference. In the summit’s joint declaration, Ukraine was only mentioned twice, as opposed to 59 times in last year’s declaration. Although the U.S. continues to send aid to Ukraine, Zelenskyy’s presence was likely toned down due to Trump's previous disagreements with Zelenskyy, and loose praise of Russia’s President Putin.
More generally, the alliance and Rutte specifically made an effort to play a deferential role towards Trump. Private messages revealed that Rutte had referred to the recent American airstrikes on Iran as “truly extraordinary, and something no one else dared to do,” adding that the operation made the world “safer.” Another specific remark that has garnered a massive amount of online attention was when Rutte said that “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language to get them to stop,” in response to Trump’s comments about mediating the conflict between Israel and Iran. Although Rutte has since denied that the comment directly referred to Trump, instead claiming that he was talking about world leadership in general, it hasn’t stopped the Trump administration from announcing commemorative merch, including a t-shirt with Trump's mugshot with Rutte’s remark emblazoned on the front.
Overall, although there were some points of disagreement, such as Spain’s spending exemption, as well as other disruptions like pro-Palestine protests outside the summit’s venue, this summit will undoubtedly be influential for NATO actions going forward. The decisions made, particularly the ambitious 5% spending goal and limited reaffirmation of support for Ukraine, signal a shift towards proactiveness and militarization from within the alliance. At the same time, the dynamics surrounding Trump’s influence and tone struck by leaders like Rutte will also play a part in shaping NATO’s trajectory. Ultimately, as the alliance approaches its 80th anniversary, new security challenges will undoubtedly put its cohesion and policy direction set at this summit to the test.