From the BoardStrategy, leadership and governance for FY 2027Read

Research

Research and analysis

Analysis and commentary on markets, technology and the law, from Perrin Institution and the Perrin & Fidutam record before it.

Browse by subject

Peer-reviewed From 24 September 2026

New research from Perrin Institution is peer-reviewed before it is published, and carries the mark, a formatted citation you can copy, and the institution's paper format.

Archive Before 24 September 2026

Everything published before then, including every paper in the register below, is the research archive: the Perrin & Fidutam record, kept in full as it first appeared and marked as archive wherever it is shown.

The first page of A.I. as a Strategic Trade Asset

A.I. as a Strategic Trade Asset

Archive

Designing export controls for the next generation of semiconductors: a 101-page study by Perrin with the Institute for Youth in Policy, July 2025. Read it online with a contents panel, or download the PDF.

Read the paper
The title page of Automating Healthcare Claims with AI and Blockchain

Automating Healthcare Claims with AI and Blockchain

A transformer-based smart contract framework: a six-page paper by Finn Jarvi and Cash Hilinski, 2025.

A recreational paper. It has not been peer-reviewed and is not intended to be cited.

Read the paper

Subjects

Browse by subject

Choose a subject to open its publications in the register below.

Publications

All publications

Showing 25 of 383 publications

  1. 383October 15, 2025AnalysisArchiveFrench Government CollapsesThe removal of French Prime Minister François Bayrou Triggers a Government Collapse and Further InstabilityAyushmaan MukherjeeInternational Affairs
  2. 382October 15, 2025AnalysisArchiveRussian Drones Enter Polish Airspace: NATO Responds20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace in an apparent error, prompting NATO to launch a new plan called “Eastern Sentry”Ayushmaan MukherjeeTechnology
  3. 381September 25, 2025CommentaryArchiveThe Ordinary Face of Political Violence: Utah, Identity, and the American DivideGrowing up Nigerian-American in a deeply conservative state shaped how I see events like the Charlie Kirk shooting—and the contradictions they reveal about American politics today.Chioma P. OkoroDomestic Affairs
  4. 380September 23, 2025AnalysisArchiveWorld Bank pledges require that companies bidding in developing countries allocate a fixed share of labor cost to local workersBuilding Resilience Through Local EmpowermentStavros IliadisEconomics
  5. 379September 22, 2025AnalysisArchiveChina Hosts 2025 Victory Day ParadeThe PLA unveils new military capabilities from missile systems to cyber and unmanned capabilitiesAyushmaan MukherjeeInternational Affairs
  6. 378September 21, 2025AnalysisArchiveAutumn Budget Looms as UK Faces Highest Borrowing Costs and a Weaker PoundThe UK is facing its highest long-term borrowing costs in 27 years while the pound weakens against major currencies. As the Autumn Budget approaches, investors are watching closely to see how the government will manage the economy.Storey KuoEconomics
  7. 377September 21, 2025AnalysisArchiveWeakening U.S. Labor Market and Rising Inflation Signal Economic SofteningA weakening labor market and rising prices puts the U.S. in risk of economic softening and slowdown.Storey KuoEconomics
  8. 376September 21, 2025AnalysisArchiveEscalating Tensions in the South China SeaA recent collision between Chinese and Philippine ships amidst rising tensions in the South China Sea, raises fears about the future of the region, more specifically over sovereignty clashes for territories in the region.Videep AgarwalInternational Affairs
  9. 375September 21, 2025AnalysisArchiveUK–Germany Seal “Kensington Treaty”: A New Pillar for Europe’s SecurityHistoric bilateral pact deepens defense, trade and research ties as Starmer and Merz cement a closer E3 partnershipVikram RanganathInternational Affairs
  10. 374September 21, 2025AnalysisArchiveCHOOSE Your Own Life: Alabama Changes the Game for Educational ReformAlabama Governor Kay Ivey bars the AHSAA from enforcing a policy where students are ineligible to play sports during their first year at a new school.Rida AkhtarEducation
  11. 373September 21, 2025AnalysisArchiveBRICS Summit in Rio Charts Path for Inclusive DevelopmentExpanded bloc of emerging economies pledges reforms, climate finance, and social equity as Brazil hosts historic 2025 gatheringVikram RanganathInternational Affairs
  12. 372September 20, 2025AnalysisArchiveWashington-Brokered DRC-Rwanda Peace Accord Opens Path to Great Lakes StabilityExpanded agreement aims to end conflict and boost regional cooperation as U.S. helps broker historic dealVikram RanganathInternational Affairs
  13. 371September 20, 2025AnalysisArchiveA Televised Revolution: Is Nepali Gen Z Trying to Create a New Statement?Nepali Gen Z’s rally exposes how Nepal’s old political class keeps re-crowning itself long after the monarchy fellMichelle AlinndraInternational Affairs
  14. 370September 13, 2025AnalysisArchiveA closer look at Trump's healthAfter Trump’s disappearance, rumors about his health and possible death circulatedClaire YangEconomics
  15. 369September 12, 2025AnalysisArchiveOut in the Cold: Revelations from ChatGPT’s Newest ModelOpenAI’s latest language model, GPT 5 has brought about faster response times, but with it - mixed reactions, dangerous implications and brought to light truths that we may not be ready to believe.Joseph AugustineAI
  16. 368September 12, 2025AnalysisArchiveGlobal health NGOs warn that proposed U.S. foreign aid cuts threaten vaccination campaigns in Africa and Latin AmericaAmerican foreign aid retrenchment has detrimental economical and geopolitical effects on thousands of lives globally.Anisha PandeyHealth
  17. 367September 12, 2025AnalysisArchiveAI Chatbots Under FTC ScrutinyThe Federal Trade Commission is coming after AI chatbots because of the mental health risk that they pose to children. The aftermath of this probe could very well shake even the largest AI firms in the country.Aadith MuthukumarDomestic Affairs
  18. 366September 12, 2025AnalysisArchiveDeloitte forecasts potential U.S. Fed rate cut amid shifting bond yieldsWhat could this prediction signal for the future of the already cripled U.S. EconomyStavros IliadisEconomics
  19. 365September 12, 2025AnalysisArchiveHolness Secures Historic Third Term in JamaicaJamaica Labor Party (JLP) leader Andrew Holness wins a third consecutive term despite low voter participation and corruption allegations.Videep AgarwalInternational Affairs
  20. 364September 12, 2025AnalysisArchiveExperts Meet At The UN To Implement Strategies Preserving Marine BiodiversityThis week’s gathering might just be the push the United Nations needs to begin implementing its High Seas treatyAnika KaparthyInternational Affairs
  21. 363September 12, 2025CommentaryArchiveJustice is (Color) Blind: Louisiana's Radical Case to Erase Race from RedistrictingLouisiana’s surprise legal shift asks the Supreme Court to bar race-based districts, threatening a key provision of the landmark civil-rights law.Aniruddh MarellaDomestic Affairs
  22. 362September 12, 2025AnalysisArchivePalantir Moves Into The UKAfter sparking much controversy with the US about their alleged unethical practices, Palantir has decided to move into the public sector, striking a one-of-a-kind £500,000 deal with the Coventry City Council.Aadith MuthukumarInternational Affairs
  23. 361September 12, 2025AnalysisArchiveHow Trump’s Clash with the Fed Shook Wall StreetTrump threat to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook rattles global markets with stocks slipping dollar weakening and bond yields shiftingRadhika SharmaDomestic Affairs
  24. 360September 12, 2025CommentaryArchiveThe Commerce of Delay: How Companies Profit While You WaitIn a world progressing at a rate faster than ever before - time is of the essence. Companies use clever, subtle techniques that ensure they profit despite consumer delaysJoseph AugustineCommerce
  25. 359September 12, 2025CommentaryArchiveFrom Research to Politics: The Supreme Court’s NIH Ruling Raises Questions about Academic FreedomNIH grant cuts put academic freedom and the future of research under a microscopeAustin ChengHealth
Publications
300+
Contributing members
113
Subjects
13
Pages in the compendium
1,549
An operator working at an early computing installation

The Compendium

Every work published under Perrin & Fidutam in one official volume, with full member credits: 1,549 pages, including the featured study on AI semiconductor export controls.

Download the PDF (39 MB)

Read it online

The evidence, by area

Published figures behind the research.

Frontier AI SafetyHow long a task frontier AI agents can complete, half the timeLength of task, in the time an expert takes (log scale)
How long a task frontier AI agents can complete, half the time (Length of task, in the time an expert takes (log scale)). Source: METR.1 sec1 min10 min1 hr8 hr2 daysGPT-2GPT-4oClaude 3.7 SonnetClaude Mythos Preview17 hr

Source: METR, Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models, Last updated 8 May 2026. Each point is the state-of-the-art model at its release; confidence intervals are wide.

View the data
Length of task, in the time an expert takes (log scale)
GPT-23 sec
davinci-0028 sec
GPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct36 sec
GPT-44 min
GPT-4o7 min
Claude 3.5 Sonnet11 min
o1-preview20 min
o139 min
Claude 3.7 Sonnet1 hr
o32 hr
GPT-53.4 hr
Claude Opus 4.54.9 hr
GPT-5.25.9 hr
Claude Opus 4.612 hr
Claude Mythos Preview17 hr
Frontier AI SafetyAI risks organisations call relevant, against those they actively mitigate, 2025% of organisations surveyed
  • Considered relevant
  • Actively mitigated
InaccuracyInaccuracy, Considered relevant: 7474Inaccuracy, Actively mitigated: 70.670.6CybersecurityCybersecurity, Considered relevant: 71.871.8Cybersecurity, Actively mitigated: 61.561.5Regulatory complianceRegulatory compliance, Considered relevant: 62.962.9Regulatory compliance, Actively mitigated: 53.453.4Personal privacyPersonal privacy, Considered relevant: 54.454.4Personal privacy, Actively mitigated: 4444IP infringementIP infringement, Considered relevant: 51.451.4IP infringement, Actively mitigated: 39.739.7Autonomous system actionsAutonomous system actions, Considered relevant: 43.843.8Autonomous system actions, Actively mitigated: 28.828.8ReputationReputation, Considered relevant: 37.337.3Reputation, Actively mitigated: 2222ExplainabilityExplainability, Considered relevant: 36.336.3Explainability, Actively mitigated: 29.229.2

Source: Stanford HAI, AI Index 2026, fig. 3.3.5 (McKinsey survey), April 2026 (9th edition). Redrawn from the AI Index public data, CC BY-ND 4.0. The eight risks most often named.

View the data
Considered relevantActively mitigated
Inaccuracy7470.6
Cybersecurity71.861.5
Regulatory compliance62.953.4
Personal privacy54.444
IP infringement51.439.7
Autonomous system actions43.828.8
Reputation37.322
Explainability36.329.2
BiosecurityMaximum-containment (BSL-4) labs by region, 2023Labs
  • Operational
  • Under construction
  • Planned
Maximum-containment (BSL-4) labs by region, 2023 (Labs). Source: Global BioLabs (King's College London).0102030EuropeAsiaNorth AmericaOceaniaAfricaSouth America

Source: Global BioLabs (King's College London), Global BioLabs Report 2023, February 2023.

View the data
OperationalUnder constructionPlanned
Europe2411
Asia9011
North America1212
Oceania400
Africa210
South America001
BiosecurityTransparency reports filed under the Biological Weapons ConventionReports per year
Transparency reports filed under the Biological Weapons Convention (Reports per year). Source: UNODA BWC Implementation Support Unit.05010015020102012201420162018202020222024113

Source: UNODA BWC Implementation Support Unit, Confidence-Building Measures briefing, slide 7, August 2025. In 2024 that was 60% of States Parties.

View the data
Reports per year
201071
201169
201269
201365
201472
201573
201683
201778
201880
201983
202086
202194
202299
2023106
2024113
Capital and AccessAdults with a financial account% of adults aged 15 and over
  • World
  • High income
  • Low & middle income
Adults with a financial account (% of adults aged 15 and over). Source: World Bank.0255075100201120142017202120247995

Source: World Bank, Global Findex Database 2025, Findex 2025, API last updated 2025-10-06. CC BY 4.0. Survey years only.

View the data
WorldHigh incomeLow & middle income
201150.687.541.6
201461.792.254.7
201769.39364
202173.895.869
202478.794.975.4
Capital and AccessUS households with no bank account% of households
US households with no bank account (% of households). Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).02.557.510200920112013201520172019202120234.2

Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households, 2023, November 2024. Public domain.

View the data
% of households
20097.6
20118.2
20137.7
20157
20176.5
20195.4
20214.5
20234.2
Autonomy and ForceUN First Committee votes on autonomous weaponsStates
  • In favour
  • Against
  • Abstained
UN First Committee votes on autonomous weapons (States). Source: UN General Assembly First Committee, as reported by Stop Killer Robots.050100150200202320242025

Source: UN General Assembly First Committee, as reported by Stop Killer Robots, recorded votes 2023 to 2025, 2023-11-01 / 2024-11-05 / 2025-11-06.

View the data
In favourAgainstAbstained
202316458
2024161313
202515658
Autonomy and ForceWorld military spendingUS$ billion, constant 2024 prices
World military spending (US$ billion, constant 2024 prices). Source: SIPRI via Our World in Data.01,0002,0003,0002016201820202022202420252,771

Source: SIPRI via Our World in Data, Military Expenditure Database, April 2026, April 2026 (OWID processed 2026-04-27). CC BY 4.0.

View the data
US$ billion, constant 2024 prices
20161,961.8
20171,982.9
20182,044.6
20192,131.6
20202,209.7
20212,227.8
20222,299.3
20232,453.4
20242,692.3
20252,771.3
Cyber and Critical SystemsLosses reported to the FBI for internet crimeUS$ billion
Losses reported to the FBI for internet crime (US$ billion). Source: FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center.0102030202020212022202320242025

Source: FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, 2025 IC3 Annual Report, April 2026. Public domain.

View the data
US$ billion
20204.2
20216.9
202210.3
202312.5
202416.6
202520.877
Cyber and Critical SystemsExploited vulnerabilities added to CISA’s catalogVulnerabilities per year
  • All KEV additions
  • Of which: known ransomware use
Exploited vulnerabilities added to CISA’s catalog (Vulnerabilities per year). Source: CISA.020040060020222023202420252026 (to 22 Sep)

Source: CISA, Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog, Catalog as downloaded 2026-09-24 (latest dateAdded 2026-09-22; 1,721 entries). Public domain. Counted by year added; 2026 runs to 22 September.

View the data
All KEV additionsOf which: known ransomware use
2022555132
202318743
202418644
202524531
2026 (to 22 Sep)23727
Automated DecisionsAI-enabled medical devices authorised by the FDADevices per year
AI-enabled medical devices authorised by the FDA (Devices per year). Source: Stanford HAI.010020030020152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source: Stanford HAI, AI Index 2026, fig. 6.2.6 (FDA), April 2026 (9th edition). Redrawn from the AI Index public data, CC BY-ND 4.0. 2025 runs to September.

View the data
Devices per year
20156
201618
201727
201865
201980
2020114
2021130
2022162
2023226
2024235
2025258
Automated DecisionsMedicare Advantage prior-authorisation requests denied% of requests, fully or partly
Medicare Advantage prior-authorisation requests denied (% of requests, fully or partly). Source: KFF.024682019202020212022202320247.7

Source: KFF, Medicare Advantage Insurers Made Nearly 53 Million Prior Authorization Determinations in 2024, 2026-01-28. 52.8 million determinations in 2024.

View the data
% of requests, fully or partly
20195.7
20205.6
20215.8
20227.4
20236.4
20247.7
Privacy and DataUS data compromises reportedCompromises per year
US data compromises reported (Compromises per year). Source: Identity Theft Resource Center.01,0002,0003,0004,000202020212022202320242025

Source: Identity Theft Resource Center, 2025 Annual Data Breach Report, January 2026.

View the data
Compromises per year
20201,107
20211,859
20221,798
20233,202
20243,152
20253,322
Privacy and DataGDPR fines imposed€ billion per year
GDPR fines imposed (€ billion per year). Source: CMS GDPR Enforcement Tracker.01232019202020212022202320242025

Source: CMS GDPR Enforcement Tracker, Enforcement over time, Last updated 2026-09-23 (3,275 cases, EUR 7,159,322,834 total).

View the data
€ billion per year
20190.09
20200.17
20210.52
20220.84
20232.09
20241.24
20251.12
Priorities and MeasurementUS federal spending on AIUS$ billion
  • Grants
  • Contracts
  • Other Transaction Agreements
US federal spending on AI (US$ billion). Source: Stanford HAI.0246201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source: Stanford HAI, AI Index 2026, fig. 8.5.2, April 2026 (9th edition). Redrawn from the AI Index public data, CC BY-ND 4.0.

View the data
GrantsContractsOther Transaction Agreements
20160.0790.0560.001
20170.1420.1340
20180.2690.2090.012
20190.430.2790.101
20200.6990.4610.078
20211.6650.7030.072
20223.3490.5810.069
20234.0260.6430.197
20245.0470.6860.124
Priorities and MeasurementResponsible-AI papers at major AI conferences, by topicPapers
  • Security & safety
  • Fairness & bias
  • Transparency & explainability
  • Privacy & data governance
Responsible-AI papers at major AI conferences, by topic (Papers). Source: Stanford HAI.02004006008002019202020212022202320242025641462405248

Source: Stanford HAI, AI Index 2026, fig. 3.4.2, April 2026 (9th edition). Redrawn from the AI Index public data, CC BY-ND 4.0. A paper can carry several topics.

View the data
Security & safetyFairness & biasTransparency & explainabilityPrivacy & data governance
2019162578939
202016898134124
2021215150189150
202228516923185
2023276212393213
2024521408355186
2025641462405248

Explore