In the past few months, a new trend has quietly been making its way through the nations of NATO’s Eastern Flank: the increased militarization of their borders with Russia. Specifically, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are withdrawing from the 1997 Ottawa Convention that bans the use of anti-personnel landmines, in order to further fortify their eastern borders. The nations have cited increasing security threats from Russia in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and seek to improve security against any threat of invasion. However, the move has been criticized by organizations like the Human Rights Watch for its potential to hurt civilians and generally cause unintended harm.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked a paradigm shift in European defense policy. For instance, the traditionally neutral nations of Finland and Sweden, both neighboring countries of Russia on the Baltic Sea, joined NATO in 2023 and 2024, respectively. More broadly, global defense spending surged in the greatest increase since the Cold War, primarily in Europe as the continent sought to increase its capacity to defend itself against the threat of conflict with Russia. The UK, for instance, recently announced a plan to invest $2 billion into constructing six new armaments factories. Although not solely motivated by Russia, NATO members also committed to a new 5% of GDP spending target at the latest summit, further demonstrating the trend towards militarization within the alliance.
For NATO’s Eastern Flank, generally understood to be the nations that border Russia and Belarus, the necessity for increased defense capabilities is especially pronounced. After all, Russian forces have been directly or indirectly responsible for several hybrid warfare attacks against the Baltics, such as cyberattacks, or arson attacks against warehouses in Vilnius in 2024. This is the reason why, earlier this year, the Baltic States also disconnected from the Russian power grid and instead fully integrated with the European Union’s. The Russian threat has also been the reason why Poland, another member of the Eastern Flank, has taken the lead in European defense with one of the highest defense spending-to-GDP ratios out of all NATO members.
More recently, the Eastern Flank has been involved in attempts to shore up defenses for the borders it shares with Russia, an effort that has been ongoing since 2022. However, the nations had previously been restricted to measures such as border walls and barbed wire, as the use of antipersonnel landmines is banned under the 1997 Ottawa Convention for their potential to cause collateral damage towards civilians. All Eastern Flank states were parties to the Convention going into 2025.
As a result, the Baltic States and Poland made a groundbreaking declaration earlier this year in March, expressing their desire to pull out of the Ottawa Convention. In the joint statement published on behalf of the defense ministers of each of the countries, the nations sought to communicate that they are “are prepared and can use every necessary measure to defend our territory and freedom.” However, the statement also highlighted the commitment of the four states to “international humanitarian law.”
However, the declaration was not a legal commitment, and did not actually change the status of the four nations in relation to the Convention; that would require the approval of the measure within the legislative bodies of each nation. Latvia was the first, whose parliament, the Saiema, voted in favor of withdrawal in April. Parliament foreign affairs committee chair Inara Murniece stated that the measure gave Latvia’s armed forces the room to maneuver “to use all possible means to defend our citizens.” The next nation to make a decision was Lithuania, whose parliament, the Seimas, voted unanimously to withdraw on May 8th. Lithuanian Social Democrat MP Ruslanas Baranovas insisted that the parliament approved the measure “so that our adversaries will have to think twice before acting against us.” The third nation was Estonia, which voted to withdraw from the Convention on June 4th. The measure passed in the parliament, the Riigikogu, with only one vote against. Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna commented the measure was a “clear signal” to Russia. Finally, Poland's parliament, the Sejm, voted to withdraw on June 26th. Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz called it “crucial for security in the region.”
Finland, although absent from the initial joint declaration in March, also found itself in alignment with the stance of the other four nations in the Eastern Flank. Finland has the longest border with Russia out of any NATO member, being 1,300 kilometers (800 miles). Finnish President Alexander Stubb also called Russia “imperialist” and explained the nation “is not a member of the Ottawa Treaty and which itself uses landmines ruthlessly.” Its parliament voted to withdraw on June 19th.
All five of the nations soon notified the United Nations and presented their instruments of withdrawal from the convention. However, even prior to withdrawal, nations like Poland had announced plans to begin the production of landmines to be placed on any borders with Russia. However, the Eastern Flank will have to wait before they can actually begin to mine their borders. This is because Article 20 of the Ottawa Convention stipulates that a withdrawal is delayed by about six months after the UN is formally notified. Thus, the Baltic States and Poland will have to wait until December, while Finland will only formally withdraw in January 2026.
The decisions have notably been criticized by human rights groups. The Human Rights Watch, for example, has claimed that the move “unnecessarily puts civilians at risk.” Anti-personnel landmines cannot distinguish between combatants and civilians. Additionally, mined areas naturally become unusable for other purposes, such as agriculture or civilian development. Furthermore, a group of 101 Nobel laureates, led by Jody Williams, the coordinator of the Ottawa Convention itself when it was in the drafting process, signed a joint statement cautioning against withdrawal. Even UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in June he was “gravely concerned” by the withdrawals, before calling for stronger anti-landmine efforts by nations globally. However, it is important to note that the withdrawal of the nations prior to their usage of antipersonnel landmines upholds the precedent of international law, and is arguably preferable to the scenario in which the countries openly disobey the rule of law as a result of the Convention’s stipulations still applying to them.
Ultimately, even with objections from UN leaders, it doesn’t seem like the withdrawal of the Eastern Flank from the Ottawa Convention, or the mining of their borders with Russia. Europe will thus likely see even more border militarization by 2026, when the withdrawals are formally carried out. This marks a new stage in the tensions between NATO and Russia over Ukraine, and makes a total end to the conflict seem all the more distant.