All eyes are on Brazil as the city of Belém, the gateway to the Amazon rainforest, prepares to host COP30, the first UN Climate Conference to be held in the city, in November 2025. The Amazon forest covers up to 6.5 million km², serving as home to 13% of the known species in the world and about 47 million people, which include over 400 indigenous groups. Moreover, the Amazon stores a billion tonnes of carbon, which is equivalent to the entire world’s carbon emission for 15-20 years. The ecological and cultural significance explains why COP30 is dubbed as the “Amazon COP,” as the summit carries the heavy symbolic weight when world leaders discuss deforestation and climate justice at the lungs of the earth. Ironically, despite reducing deforestation and emissions, Brazil remains devoted to oil production in order to enhance economic development, while Belém endures congested streets and endemic crimes. In spite of that, the essence of climate forums like COP is less about hard enforcement and more about shaping the norms, narratives, and legitimacy that guide international relations.

Why Climate Forums Matter

COP30 matters because it responds to climate loss and damage. It offers a chance to raise the level of attention of climate change for world leaders to then negotiate rules and guidelines needed to tackle climate change and its impact. Some may argue that the COP is a “cynical exercise in moral blackmail against the West,” but to the developing countries of the Global South, who are disproportionately affected by climate change yet often have fewer resources to access financing, the COP serves as an opportunity to receive essential funding to address climate impacts. Funds received from 43 developed countries, within the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, have pledged to address the needs of developing countries by mobilizing US$100 billion a year by 2020 in order to share the burden of climate change.

It is undeniable that the COP talks are a slow, once-a-year meeting. However, the COP talks have made a difference, especially in changing the direction of investments, which can be seen clearly through how much is invested in energy efficiency and green energy. The COP shows the world as it is, with people trying to strive for climate justice over and over again, which is why turning points do matter. The world is heading to at least 3.5℃ of global warming by the end of the century, prior to the COP21 and Paris Agreement. Efforts made finally resulted in the decrease of almost a degree from the track. Further attempts, including from the COP26 in Glasgow, resulted in the Glasgow Climate Pact calling nations for the first time to phase down the relentless chase of coal power and inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels. In addition to that, COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh’s effort has led to a justice breakthrough for vulnerable countries, establishing an institutionalized loss and damage fund. It is little, but it is not nothing, and by hosting the upcoming COP in the Amazon, Brazil carries a symbolic weight as a pivotal and potential Global South leader for climate equity.

Climate Actors

As the COP30 approaches, negotiating tables are bound to become battlegrounds as different world leaders push their countries’ preferred climate norms. Global South coalitions, including the G77+ China, AOSIS, and the African group, demand adaptation support and funding for climate impact that are grounded in historical responsibility with the intention of upholding the “common but differentiated” capabilities each country has. In contrast, the Global North, consisting of the US and EU, emphasizes emission and carbon market cuts while resisting large-scale finance transfers, as the Bonn outcome made it clear. Meanwhile, parallel to these country actors, indigenous leaders, NGOs, and activists reached out to push for inclusion in order to pressure legitimacy and private framing with full participation on land protection.

Obstacles Ahead

The COP processes are structurally fragile, making it less about science than politics, which then may threaten to undercut its impact, leading to a good COP or a worse COP critique. Multiple countries’ demand for agreement on this matter often leads to a deliberately simplified proposal to appeal to the largest number of votes that, in the end, deviates from the urgency of these climate threats. At COP26, India, who was backed up by China, opposed a stronger wording, explaining the last-minute change from “phase out fossil fuels” to “phase down inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” The language that does not fully serve as a binding tone sends an important signal to reduce the use of coal instead of fully ending it despite fully knowing that the burning of fossil fuels must end. Trust is another fault line when the Global North misses their $100 billion annual climate pledge for over a decade. This further explains how the Global South skepticism is not only paranoia because without trust, norms like this lose their legitimacy. On top of that, geopolitical tensions complicate most of this matter with countries like the US and its swinging climate credibility with its domestic politics, leading to inconsistent global engagement. In addition to that, there is China, which positions itself as a Global South champion while also being the largest emitter, and Russia, which remains isolated yet disruptive in these negotiations. Furthermore, these power imbalances will undermine cooperative norm-setting, especially for vulnerable countries. 

Ultimately, COP30 will be able to serve as more than a climate summit, determining if global forums are still able to deliver shared purpose in the recent climate change. By hosting the talks in the Amazon, Brazil is gambling on its ability to align its symbolic “lungs of the earth” with powerful and enforceable norms around equity and climate justice. If successful, COP30 will be able to bring the Global South’s priorities into the international climate politics where COP processes remain relevant with its contested norms. However, if these dynamics continue to persist, the upcoming COP30 risks becoming a fragmentation and symbolic theater where real powers shift elsewhere to arenas like the G20 or the EU’s carbon border tax. In that sense, Belém will not only test Brazil’s government supervision but also the future viability of the COP itself.