AI played a major role in last year’s presidential election. From deepfakes to AI-generated advertisements, a new wave of campaigning was born from the fast-paced technology. Amidst the rapid development and implementation of AI in our daily lives comes a particularly sensitive moment for the state of elections and democracy going forward: the 2026 Midterm Elections. AI has the potential to make or break the results for either party, so future regulation will be closely scrutinized by both sides of the aisle. 

Significance of the 2026 Midterms

The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be extremely consequential for the United States. The first reason -- and the most obvious -- is that the balance of power in Congress may shift. Republicans, who hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate, are currently capable of passing President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda without much trouble. 

In the 2026 midterms, all 435 House Seats and 33/100 Senate seats are up for grabs. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterms. In every midterm election with an incumbent Republican president since World War II, Republicans lost an average of 26 seats in the midterms. 

The midterms will also give politicians an accurate look at the president’s approval rating halfway into his second term. The outcome will determine if Trump can continue to push his legislative and political agenda forward. If Republicans lose control of one or both chambers of Congress, they will likely be stuck in a deadlock attempting to pass particularly polarizing and politically-charged pieces of legislation. 

If they lose control of the Senate, Democrats will likely block all efforts to approve Trump’s judicial and executive appointments. The stakes are high, and everyone knows it. 

Current Issues

Top of mind for voters will be issues related to the economy, immigration, and the current administration's policies on things like trade, spending, and democratic integrity. President Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” -- which he recently signed into law -- will have a major impact on electoral success in the 2026 midterms. However, very few voters actually know what the packed, 870-page bill contains. 

Right now, both parties are trying to claim victory before voters realize the bill's effects, and the stakes are huge for Republicans, who passed the bill and have the most to lose next year. The bill’s biggest measures were front-loaded to take effect before the midterms, but their impact may not be felt till much later. 

Redistricting wars in states like Texas are already making headlines, as Republican lawmakers look to soften losses -- or even make gains -- in next year’s election. More than a dozen states are weighing the idea of redrawing district boundaries ahead of the midterms.

Texas legislators recently proposed a rare, mid-decade congressional map change at Trump’s instruction. If passed, five seats previously in democratic areas would be redrawn to heavily favor Republican gains. Large Democratic states have retaliated by threatening to do the same. Governors Gavin Newsom, Kathy Hochul, and JB Pritzker of California, New York, and Illinois would see sizable Democratic gains if they followed through with retaliatory claims. 

Gerrymandering and other forms of election ‘manipulation’ will further undermine election integrity in America. As attacks on democratic institutions continue and the U.S. leans more towards autocracy, historians will look back on the results of the 2026 midterms as a pivotal moment in the country’s history. 

AI on Another Level

AI was already an issue being talked about before last year’s presidential election. According to an analysis of AI-related bills from state legislatures from January 1 - July 31, 2024, by the Brennan Center, legislators focused on “addressing deepfakes of themselves, but less so on other potential harms of AI on democracy.” 

14 states enacted deepfake laws prior to the election, but there was remarkably little new policy in the many other areas related to AI and democracy -- from the ways AI is used in election administration to voter suppression and election security. 

By July 31, 2024, a total of 151 bills addressing deceptive media in elections using AI had been introduced or passed.

Other topics that were lightly touched on -- but are worthy of much more scrutiny --  include attacks on the election process, regulation of robocalls, guidance for AI use in elections, and threats to election workers. The Center said that AI was already being used to “suppress and intimidate” voters and to “falsely allege election fraud.”

Furthermore, they emphasized expert warnings on AI use to “supercharge partisan gerrymandering of legislative districts,” which is particularly relevant today amidst redistricting conflicts in many states nationwide. 

Today, AI is much more advanced than it was just one year ago. New models like GPT5 have been released, and some unreleased models have proven their aptitude through feats like clinching Gold at this year’s International Math Olympiad. Simultaneously, the current administration’s approach to AI has been permissive. 

President Trump initially directed all federal departments and agencies to rescind any actions taken by the Biden administration that are “inconsistent with enhancing America’s global AI dominance.” 

Recent advancements in AI make it increasingly challenging to prevent things like election fraud, voter suppression, and the spread of misinformation -- issues the U.S. has already had to deal with in recent elections. While AI only evolves, regulation has not improved much since last year’s election. 

Current Measures

The U.S. has not yet adopted any comprehensive federal regulation on AI. Since last year, the rate of AI-related regulation and legislation has not matched the rate of AI advancement. While Congress is still considering numerous AI bills on a wide range of issues, there is a lack of focus on election-related legislation. 

States have also stayed focused on AI deepfakes and deceptive media, and many legislators have targeted regulations towards this type of content because of its direct effect on their image online. 

Back in 2023, the Republican National Committee released a video of what would happen if Biden won the 2024 Presidential race. In the top left corner of this ad was a small note that said “Built entirely with AI imagery.” Some candidates are also using generative AI robots to call potential voters. AI was already remarkably influential in last year’s race, but it will be an even bigger player in the upcoming midterms. 

Many states have already enacted laws regulating the use of AI to create political deepfakes by either prohibiting such material or requiring AI disclosures. Other bills that have been introduced include those on AI in campaign finance, election interference, and fraudulent voting.

Despite many specific examples of AI misuse, quantifying AI’s overall effect on elections and democracy is extremely challenging because there is no way to measure its cumulative impact over time. 

What To Look Out For

Midterm season is slowly creeping up on us. Rather than focusing solely on the details of new AI regulation, it will be important to analyze how much is regulated before the election.

The current administration and Congress may opt for a lax approach towards AI next year, especially if they believe it will help them keep the Republican majority. On the other hand, many states may introduce more AI-related election regulations to combat the spread of misinformation and attacks on election integrity. 

Either way, the quality and quantity of such measures must be closely scrutinized. AI is a revolutionary technology that we are learning more and more about every day. Its influence is immeasurable, but it is a tool that has the potential to quietly determine the outcome of one of the most consequential elections in American history. If democracy is the experiment, 2026 may be its most dangerous trial yet.