Mali’s military administration reported earlier this month that it had come across yet another coup attempt. Dozens of military and citizens were arrested, including a French national and several high-ranking generals. These people were immediately labelled traitors by authorities. This may sound familiar to many Malians, as the present authorities were installed by coups in 2020 and 2021. The question of whether this was a genuine conspiracy or merely a technique for the junta to intimidate opponents and strengthen its hold on power is now evidently raised by the arrests. It has been years since Mali had a stable civilian government. Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was overthrown in a coup orchestrated by Colonel Assimi Goïta in August 2020. Then, in less than a year, Goïta declared himself as president and sidelined the civilian transitional authorities in yet another attempt to gain power.
What is Happening Now?
Mali’s foreign policy has changed significantly since then. Despite once being important in the fight against armed groups, French troops and the UN peacekeepers have been forced to leave. Mali has now accepted Russian mercenaries as their replacements, initially known as Wagner and currently as Africa Corps. While the economy is still fragile, extremist organizations are still targeting citizens as security forces continue to put down democratic protests. Elections were originally promised by the junta, but due dates are continually being postponed, and laws have been adjusted to allow Goïta to remain in power perpetually.
The government stated that the most recent plot started on August 1. It was allegedly led by two generals, Abass Dembélé and Nema Sagara. According to where it came from, a total of 20 to 40 persons have been taken into officials’ custody. Yann Vezilier, a French national who the junta believes was working for French intelligence, is one of them. Additionally, pictures of some inmates were shown on national television, which then fueled further suspicions of a plan with foreign support. For the junta, this accomplished two goals, which are to eliminate possible opponents within the army and to portray Mali as a victim of external intervention. Both points support the need for the military to keep functioning as a control for the nation.
Real fracture or staged purge?
At this moment, determining how much of the story is accurate is the difficult part. There are grounds to think that the dissatisfaction inside the Malian army is real since numerous military personnel are reportedly angered by the treatment received by Russian mercenaries. The Russian troops receive medical attention, logistics, and weaponry that are far superior to Mali’s own military, and such resentment could effortlessly lead to senior officers plotting a rebellion. On the other hand, the arrests, however, may potentially be political theater. Military governments frequently fabricate coup plans in order to repress opponents, intimidate the public, and cause fear. Furthermore, as the junta justifies its alliance with Russia by criticizing France to appeal to its nationalist pride, many notice how this is not new; in previous decades, these tactics have been used by juntas throughout Africa.
Despite that, Mali will still suffer whether or not the coup attempt was real. It would indicate that the junta is weaker than it appears to be if the conspiracy were real. The divisions inside the army may lead to open warfare, which would allow jihadist organizations a greater freedom to function. However, if the plot was a fabrication, it demonstrated how the junta is moving closer to totalitarianism, sweeping up anyone who may be opposed to the idea, which then will permanently put democracy on hold. In the end, both situations call into question the junta's main commitment, which was that stability would only result from military control, with Mali on the other hand being caught in a cycle of uncertainty and repression. The spectacles surrounding the coup plot simply make the frustration of the general public worse. In the hopes that corruption and instability would be eradicated, some Malians initially backed the military coup in 2020. However, nothing has changed in the past five years as violence continues while liberties continue to fall apart. With the detained generals being live-streamed on television, this simply serves to confirm the idea that Mali’s current leaders prioritize their own security over the welfare of their people.
Regional Stakes
Presently, the chaos and instability in Mali extend beyond the country’s borders. Since 2020, there have already been three military takeovers in the Sahel region: in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. These three juntas have been talked into establishing an alliance against ECOWAS, the West African bloc that has advocated for a return to democracy. The most recent arrests demonstrate that stability is far from here, despite how ECOWAS just lifted sanctions on Mali in the hopes of progress. Eventually, it will be more difficult for ECOWAS to control the larger coup belt if Mali keeps going in this direction. In addition to that, aligning with Russia is the larger gamble. Other Sahel nations started to question if they can depend on Moscow as a long-term partner if the model supported by Russia is unable to bring their wanted stability. Nevertheless, should it succeed, it may inspire other juntas to take the same strategy and choose security agreements with Russia above the Western demands.
Mali’s Current Choices
Since neither alternative improves Mali’s democracy or stability, the country is now faced with two grave choices. Perhaps the more important lesson is that Mali’s issue is not who runs the country now, but rather how the state itself continues. Civilians are caught between disillusionment and terror as military authorities, regional blocs, and foreign powers conflict in different ways. Today, Mali is a tyranny struggling to survive as a functioning state. The junta narrative of a failed coup, whether real or not, demonstrates that its primary goal is power preservation rather than democratic restoration. This is concerning for the Sahel as a whole since Mali may risk the whole region falling into a more catastrophic disaster if it is unable to find a way back to stability.