Lawmakers in Texas and California are in the midst of a major political battle, one that may tip the balances of power on not just the state, but also federal level. Talks of a redistricting shift in Texas began when President Trump requested a new congressional map of Texas ahead of midterms, one where the Republican party would potentially be able to win five additional GOP seats. Texas ended up passing a redistricting measure that would achieve this goal, but California soon hit back with their own plans to redistrict, hoping to cancel out Texas’s move. 

What is redistricting and how does it work?

Redistricting is the process of redrawing congressional districts. Often done after Census data is collected, they can also be used as a way to gain political favor for one party over the other, an idea called gerrymandering. 

The House of Representatives has 435 seats where each member represents a district in their home state. Redistricting is up to independent commissions in some states and state legislatures in others, but by redrawing district lines, the division of votes in a district can change, flipping districts that may have historically gone towards one party. 

Why Now?

The split of the House of Representatives by party is currently 219 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and 4 vacant seats (3 of which are Democrat), showing that the balance of power in favor of the Republicans is very precarious. With midterms coming in just over a year and the historical precedent that the president’s party typically loses seats in the midterm election after a victory according to The American Presidency Project, securing these additional seats becomes very important. If not, there may be increased investigations into the Republican party and the President.

Texas and California’s Fight

After President Trump called on Republicans in Texas during CNBC’s Squawk Box to redraw their districts so that his party could maintain control of the House after midterms, their effort hit a roadblock after the state’s Democrats fled the state and broke quorum, spreading out across the country. When the governor ordered for them to be arrested, they returned after two weeks and the chamber voted 88-52 to create five new seats.

Their decision was quickly approved by the Senate and will soon be signed by the governor to officially become law. 

As a result, California soon retaliated, creating a new plan to redistrict their own state. The process in California is a little more difficult due to a 2008 law to make the practice less partisan. However, California governor Gavin Newsom created a plan to have the new maps be put on the special ballot in the fall to allow voters themselves to choose if they want their state maps to be redistricted.

More states on both sides are soon joining the battle with Illinois, New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Maryland attempting to counteract Texas’s plan and Indiana, Florida, Missouri, and Ohio thinking about redistricting to boost Republican numbers in the House even further.

Political Implications

With the redistricting battle potentially expanding to nine more states in the near future, the potential political implications of this must be considered. 

The potential shifts in House seats have high legal and democratic stakes. In Texas, there are already lawsuits such as LULAC v Abbott arguing that the new maps violate the Voting Rights Act by diluting the political power of minorities while California’s decision to override its independent redistricting commission has drawn criticism from many major figures because it overrides the credibility of redistricting.

The battle is also being weaponized politically with the Texas Democrats staging major protests, even sleeping in the state Capitol according to NBC, to make it seem like they are defending voting rights while California’s moves are being positioned as a countermeasure to authoritarian overreach by the governor, boosting his own national profile for potential future presidential campaigns.

In the long term, this battle deepens concerns about the lack of democratic process in the US through the use of increasingly precise data and mapping technology, allowing the constant shift and creation of disproportionate advantages. Redistricting has always been used as a tool for political control, but this time the implications are more than just in the present but also for our future, potentially setting dangerous precedents.